Obama Gains Convention Boost, But Not Among Likely Voters
Barack Obama has emerged from the nominating conventions in his best
position against Mitt Romney since spring, a 50-44 percent race among
registered voters in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll. But
Romney recovers to a virtual dead heat among those most likely to vote,
keeping the contest between them wide open.
The 50-44 percent race among registered voters compares with a 46-47
percent Obama-Romney contest immediately before the conventions; while
those shifts are within the survey's margin of sampling error, Obama is
at his best vs. Romney since an ABC/Post poll in early April. That's the
case even though fewer than half, 48 percent, approve of Obama's job
performance in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research
Associates.
The main change has been a shift among Democrats, coalescing around
their party's nominee. Obama's support from Democrats who are registered
to vote has advanced by 8 percentage points since before the
conventions, to a near-unanimous 91 percent, matching his best; the
number defecting to Romney has dropped by 6 points, to a mere 5 percent.
Among other groups, Obama's support has reached a new high among men,
while Romney is at new lows among moderates, whites and higher-income
voters, all in ABC/Post polls since April 2011.
Additionally, there's been a shift in preferences in the eight tossup
states identified by the ABC News Political Unit: Registered voters in
these states now favour Obama over Romney by 54-40 percent, vs. 42-48
percent in these same states before the party conventions. And in the
states with mid-levels of unemployment, it's 51-43 percent, vs. 40-53
percent pre-convention, further suggesting some progress for Obama in
his economic arguments.
As noted, though, among likely voters - people who say they're both
registered and certain to vote - the race squeezes shut at 49-48
percent, Obama-Romney, essentially unchanged since before the
conventions (+2 Romney then, +1 Obama now, well within sampling error.)
That means that Romney's supporters express greater intention to vote - a
challenge for Obama's ground game, and a suggestion that the race could
come down to turnout.
Obama faces another reality: No incumbent with an approval rating below
50 percent in September of an election year has been re-elected in
ABC/Post polls dating to the Reagan presidency. However, one came close:
Not in September, but in early August 2004, George W. Bush had just 48
percent approval among registered voters. That went to 52 percent the
next month, en route to his re-election. (Among other presidents, it
seems that only Harry Truman won re-election with less than majority
approval as the election approached, but the only pre-election data
point available is a Gallup poll from late June 1948, showing 40 percent
approval.)
Romney has his own challenges; beyond his lack of traction on the
economy, he's broadly seen as having failed to provide specifics of his
governing plan - in effect a negative assessment of his convention
presentation. Registered voters by 63-31 percent say Romney has not
provided enough details on the policies he'd pursue as president. They
divide much more evenly, 46-49 percent, on whether Obama has or hasn't
given enough details on what he'd do in a second term.
Other results suggest opportunities for Romney. The "build that" theme
may have legs; Romney is far more apt than Obama to be seen as
understanding what it takes to build a successful small business, and
registered voters by 53-35 percent think government programs make it
harder, not easier, for small businesses to succeed - a position the
opposite of what Obama has expressed. At the same time, Obama and Romney
run evenly in trust to support small businesses, suggesting that Romney
has yet to capitalize on this issue.
More broadly, registered voters by a 13-point margin, 53-40 percent,
say government programs do more to interfere with people's lives than to
improve them, a position again more in tune with Romney's image as an
advocate of smaller government than with Obama's.
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